Rinker on Collectibles

RINKER ON COLLECTIBLES — Column #1814

Top Ten Changes in the Last Five Years (2017-2021) - Part III

This is the final column of a three-part series analyzing the Top Ten Changes in the antiques and collectibles field between 2017 and 2021. I ranked the Top Ten changes in order of importance and am presenting them in reverse order.

ROC #1810, the first column in the series, covered No. 10 – the arrival of the 21st century mindset, No. 9 – the growing dominance of grading services and their use to manipulate market pricing, and No. 8 – reproductions, copycats, and contemporary artisans – The Look has become more important than the period object. ROC #1812, the second column in the series covered No. 7 – decreasing number of antiques and collectibles reference books, No. 6 – increased buying opportunities, No. 5 – return of the investor / speculator, and No. 4 – two new Kings of the Hill. This column explores my top three picks.

3. Two price tiers

Over the past two decades, the difference between the lowest and highest valued item in collecting categories continued to grow. This growth culminated in the last five years to the point where there is a two-tiered price structure in almost every collecting category: (1) antiques and collectibles that the average collector can afford and (2) antiques and collectibles that the average collector cannot afford.

What constitutes high-end prices in collecting categories? In 2021, several categories such as antiquarian books, Asian ceramics, coins, comic books, fine art paintings, jewelry, sport memorabilia and trading cards, stamps, and watches have surpassed the million dollars threshold. A copy of Shakespeare’s First Folio sold for $6.1 million (2001), Action Comic (first appearance of Superman) for $3.2 million (2014), a 1787 Brasher Doubloon coin for $4.58 million (2014), and a Chinese Ru Guanyao Brush Washer Bowl for $37.58 million.

Putting this in perspective, if a person owns an object worth $500 thousand in any of these collecting categories, he/she no longer owns a top-dollar item. The one-half million piece is middle of the road. Those who can afford to pay millions look down on these pieces.

In the course of my collecting career, I broke the personal collecting barrier of $5,000.00 a few times. I never broke the $10,000.00 barrier, albeit I did have the funds and admittedly the opportunity a few times. I did not take it because the piece was not one of the top pieces in its collecting category.

Affordability is a relative term, fully dependent on the discretionary income a collector has available. When I became active in tracking the antiques and collectibles trade in the 1970s, objects valued above $100 thousand were scarce. I remember a piece of American furniture breaking the $325 thousand barrier in the 1970s only to have it broken by an over $12 million piece less than 10 years later.

My professional focus always has been the average collector. During the almost 35 years of writing “Rinker on Collectibles,” I have watched the affordable price number rise from $500 to $1,000 to $2,500. $2,500 still is a lot of money where I come from.

$2,500 is the top limit for my Southern Folk Pottery face jug collection, albeit I did run another collector well above $3,000 in a recent auction playing auction chicken, a fun game if a person has the stomach for it and is not afraid of losing. In auction chicken, the goal is to lose. The player runs up a competitor in hopes of exhausting his/her available funds so he/she is less able to compete later in the auction.

Every collector wants to own an Ultimate Unit (Masterpiece/Top Five) or Upper Echelon (Top 50 or Top 25) piece(s) in their collecting category. No major collection is complete without at least one Ultimate Unit or five to ten Upper Echelon objects. These pieces are “bragging right” pieces. When these top objects reach a level where the average collector can no longer afford to buy one, the incentive to collect objects in that category is lessened and often disappears.

The short-term and long-term strength of a viable antiques and collectibles secondary market rests with the average not the long-term players. In 2021, the low and middle tiers of most collecting categories suffer from the lack of new collectors. The two-tier pricing structure within collecting categories is one of the primary reasons.

2. Increased isolation

Rather than bringing the collecting community together, the internet has fractured it. Historically, the antiques and collectibles trade had closet collectors, individuals who collected quietly on their own. They did not join collector clubs, did not subscribe to trade periodicals, had few friends with similar collecting interests, and almost never talked about or shared their collections. Personal satisfaction is enough for closet collectors.

When the digital age arrived, many, I among them, hoped it would bring collectors closer together. Instead, it appears to have driven them further apart. Fewer and fewer collectors see any value in the friendships that evolve from collecting. Personal interaction in the antiques and collectibles trade is fading.

The golden age of collectors’ clubs with their newsletters, annual conventions, regional clubs, and close interaction among members is past. The collapse of one collectors club after another over the past five years has been heart-breaking, especially to me. I applaud those that still survive but express concerns about their continued longevity.

Dealer-customer friendship and certainly loyalty from both parties are vanishing. Today’s sellers have little interest in second and third sales. Sellers would rather list an item on an internet site than take the time to contact a good customer and offer it to him/her directly. The sales theory is simple. There are dozens of buyers out there, why do I need to cultivate anyone?

I belong to several Facebook collector websites devoted to subjects in which I have a special interest. I find them difficult to use and often inactive. I am old fashioned. I prefer the sound of the human voice and looking a person in the eye when I talk with them. I realize that I can achieve this using Zoom and similar communication programs. I have seen one too many science fiction movies to find this alternative acceptable.

Internet collectors have replaced the closet collectors. Their buying relies heavily on the internet. Almost every purchase is with a different seller. Internet collectors see little value in the hunt in the field. It is a waste of time and expensive, especially when the results are negative. Why visit an antiques and collectibles auction, flea market, mall, shop, or show when buyers can find what they want, when they want it, with a few clicks of a mouse?

Collecting objects is fun and commendable. I strongly recommend it. Researching objects turns them from inanimate to animate beings. This is not enough. Collecting also is about the individuals met along the way. Without this personal aspect, collecting is only half of what it should be.

3. Covid 19 pandemic

Just as it was impossible for me to ignore the 2008-2009 Great Recession, I cannot ignore the consequences associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. The 2008-2009 Great Recession did not shut down the antiques and collectibles trade. The Covid-19 pandemic did. Temporary closures included antiques and collectibles flea markets, malls, shops, and shows. Recovery has been spotty. Weaker sale venues disappeared. One can count the new antiques and collectibles sale venues created in the past five years on two hands with a possible foot thrown in for good measure.

Attendance at flea markets, malls, shops, and shows is down. Size has decreased. Many part-time and full-time dealers simply gave up or retired. They have not been replaced. While this trend was more than two decades old, Covid-19 accelerated it.

It took the antiques and collectibles marketplace almost ten years to recover from the 2008-2009 Great Recession. If the trade recovers from its Covid-19 setback in a similar time period, it will be a miracle.

In September 2021, it is clear that expectations that Covid-19 would recede by the summer of 2021 were false. Now, the experts are focusing a possible recovery by the summer of 2022. Restrictions that were removed in the fall and winter of 2021 are back in place. When people are afraid to go out for fear of becoming infected, venues relying on attendance suffer. The antiques and collectibles trade is combatting a wealth of other issues influencing why individuals no longer collect. Covid-19 has compounded the problem.

The 2021 football season has started. Attendance at a recent University of Michigan football game exceeded 100,000. Clearly, people are tired of being cooped up. The average age of those attending the football game was considerably lower than the average age of collectors. If a collector is sixty, he/she is a young collector in 2021.

While there are exceptions, the elderly are among the most fearful of Covid-19. Even though I had my two Pfizer vaccinations by mid-February, I tested positive for Covid last May. I had a bad cold for three days, nothing more. I refuse to live in fear and do what I want and travel where I want. I am atypical.

I plan to live long enough to see how the antiques and collectibles community recovers from the Covid pandemic. I am keeping my fingers crossed the result will be positive.

A Final Note: Although this column ends this three-part 35th anniversary series, I decided to revisit the four series that I wrote (20th, 25th, 30th, and 35th anniversaries) and write one more column that covers the Top 10 Changes over the full 35 years I have written “Rinker on Collectibles.” It will appear next. .

Harry L. Rinker welcomes questions from readers about collectibles, those mass-produced items from the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Selected letters will be answered in this column. Harry cannot provide personal answers. Photos and other material submitted cannot be returned. Send your questions to: Rinker on Collectibles, 5955 Mill Point Court SE, Kentwood, MI 49512. You also can e-mail your questions to harrylrinker@aol.com. Only e-mails containing a full name and mailing address will be considered.

back to columns page