Rinker on Collectibles

RINKER ON COLLECTIBLES — Column #1738

What Do 1990, 2020, and 2050 Have In Common?

Doug Herendeen, host of the 11th Hour on Talk Radio 98.5 WRTA in Altoona and with whom I do a once-a-month special WHATCHA GOT? edition (see www.harryrinker.com for the date and time of the next show as well as to listen to podcasts of past shows), and chat off-air before and during the shows. These conversations provided the genesis for several Rinker on Collectibles columns.

During the March 16, 2020 show, Doug asked me if I knew the difference between 1990, 2020, and 2050? When I replied no, Doug informed me that there was 30 years difference between the two end dates and 2020.

I have lost count how many times I have mentioned “do the numbers” when answering questions in Rinker on Collectibles. Doing the numbers is a mental exercise that helps put dates into perspective, especially when something happened longer ago than seems possible at first recall. I constantly remind myself that 1950 was 70 years ago and not yesterday, even though my memory thinks it is.

“Time passes quickly” and “time passes quicker the older one becomes” are old adages. 2020 marks the passage of the first two decades of the 21st century. 2000 is something that happened yesterday in my memory. Where did the time go? Why is it so condensed for me compared to so long for those who were born in that year? The older I become, the more I realize that time and memories blend together rather than remain distinct. I would be hard pressed to list what I did and where I was in 2010 without consulting my 2010 calendar.

Long range forecasting in terms of identifying short, intermediate, and long-term trends in the antiques and collectibles industry was one of the goals of Rinker Enterprises, Inc., the antiques and collectibles education, research, and writing center I led from the mid-1980s through the mid-2000s. At the time, I believed that if I studied the past and kept current with modern developments within and without the antiques and collectibles business, I could predict future trends with some degree of accuracy. In the 1980s and 1990s, this was possible, especially in terms of short and intermediate trends.

When 2000 arrived, I planned to write a Rinker on Collectibles column entitled “The Collecting World in 2050.” Fortunately, the rapid changes in the secondary antiques and collectibles marketplace during the late 1990s caused me to question my ability to predict the long-term future with any degree of accuracy. I dropped the idea.

The differences between the antiques and collectibles market in 1990 and 2020 are mind boggling. If the world turned upside down at Yorktown for the British, the same occurred in the antiques and collectibles market over the last 30 years. Looking back to 1990, the antiques and collectibles market still was largely a 20th century traditional market in terms of what was important to collect and how it was collected. As much as older collectors dream, wish, and/or pray to return to those golden times, the 20th century traditional collecting market has died (if the pessimists are correct) or dying (if the optimists are correct).

Change in the antiques and collectibles trade is gradual. It often occurs unnoticed until it is so well established that one believes that it was always that way. As a result, identifying a specific date for the beginning and ending of trends in the antiques and collectibles trade is problematic. Never one to shy away from controversy, I believe 1990 will be identified by future historians as a pivotal/seminal year for the antiques and collectibles community.

1990 marks the year when the antiques and collectibles trade lost its ability to control its destiny. Starting in 1990, dozens of outside events began to have major impacts on the immediate, short-term, and long-term future of the antiques and collecting industry. Many events such as the arrival of the digital age, eBay and Martha Stewart had positive and negative impacts. Others such as global economics, the lifestyle focuses of the Millennials and the generations that followed, and the 2008-2009 Great Recession produced more negative than positive consequences.

Having tracked the antiques and collectibles trade for over 40 years, one important fact stands out. The trade is surprisingly resilient. It has an uncanny ability to bounce back and to find ways to adapt to change. Once again, the process is long-term rather than immediate.

Auctioneers, collectors, and dealers who entered the antiques and collectibles trade in the last 15 years have no memories of the 800-pound gorilla, also known as eBay, in the room. Whether eBay was the Devil or Savior of the antiques and collectibles industry still is subject to debate.

In the late 1990s, few would have predicted that eBay’s dominant role in the antiques and collectibles trade would decline to the point in 2020 where it is now just another sale venue and becoming less and less a factor in how antiques and collectibles are sold on the internet. eBay lost interest in its antiques and collectibles revenue stream around the mid-2000s. eBay switched its focus to products that could be sold in multiples rather than one-at-a-time. It also switched from focusing on the auction method of sale to its “Buy its Now” philosophy. Today, eBay is a gigantic store front supporting retail pricing and not the free-flow, auction venue of antiques and collectibles.

In 1990, no one was predicting the 2008-2009 Great Recession. If someone had, they would have been subject to ridicule. Everyone was caught off guard when the Great Recession occurred. Recovery within the antiques and collectibles industry took nearly half a decade. The changes were extraordinary. Entire collecting categories fell from grace. A significant decline in value for most antiques and collectibles occurred. The latter half of the 2010s showed signs of an upward but uneven price resurgence. In the middle of 2019, the short-term and immediate future of the antiques and collectibles market appeared bright.

The arrival of COVID-19 has changed everything. Hindsight experts utilizing their uncanny ability to see into the past only after sufficient time has passed argue that America should have recognized the pending crisis and been better prepared. When I visited Renninger’s Mt. Dora on February 15, 2020, I guarantee that no one – dealers, collectors, or others – demonstrated any angst about the COVID-19 crisis. The same was true for those who attended the March 1, 2020, St. Patrick’s Day parade in Winter Park, Florida.

My parents lived through the Depression and World War II. I missed the first; and, being born on October 1, 1941, have only a few vague memories of the second. My parents’ generation understood the meaning of a crisis. My generation and those that followed had only minimal preparation for the possible ramifications associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The events associated with COVID-19 in respect to the antiques and collectibles field are unprecedented. Cancelled and closed are far more prevalent words than postponed in respect to auctions, antiques and collectibles flea markets, malls, shops, and shows. “AntiqueWeek,” a major trade periodical, suspended publication for a month.

The key question is not whether there will be a return to normalcy but what normalcy will look like in six months to a year. I have no desire or intention to speculate on “what the antiques and collectibles market will look like in 2050.” I am gutsy but not stupid.

What I am prepared to do is speculate on the state of the antiques and collectibles market in Spring 2021. First, there will be a strong, viable antiques and collectibles market. Second, the participants will be younger. Many of the older dealers and collectors will not re-enter the market, thus creating a strain on those antiques and collectibles flea markets, malls, and shows that relied on their patronage. Third, the number of traditional sale sources such as flea markets, malls, shops, and shows will decline. Those that survive will be smaller. Fourth, online sales of antiques and collectibles will increase, in part a response to how younger generations shop. Many sellers from estate sale managers to private collectors are discovering the ability to create their own auction and sale internet sites. Fifth, the secondary antiques and collectibles market will be flooded with goods. In mid-2019, I would have argued that the price of most antiques and collectibles had reached their lowest price possible. Now, it appears a new bottom price line will be established. Sixth, cash flow, especially disposable income, will be limited. Those with cash to spend will spend it sparingly. Bargain prices will be essential to selling. Seventh, the concepts that (1) everything is collectible and (2) there is a buyer for everything no longer applies. Finally, the percentage of antiques and collectibles sold for decorative or reuse purposes will increase dramatically. Collecting as a concept will drop further and further down the list of desirable leisure time activities.

It is the decline of collecting that most concerns me. There is a need for a corps of white knights and skilled advocates dedicated to convincing the general public that collecting offers far more adventure and satisfaction than downsizing. I am too old to lead the charge but ready to assist those willing to take up the gauntlet.

Harry L. Rinker welcomes questions from readers about collectibles, those mass-produced items from the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Selected letters will be answered in this column. Harry cannot provide personal answers. Photos and other material submitted cannot be returned. Send your questions to: Rinker on Collectibles, 5955 Mill Point Court SE, Kentwood, MI 49512. You also can e-mail your questions to harrylrinker@aol.com. Only e-mails containing a full name and mailing address will be considered.

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