Rinker on Collectibles

RINKER ON COLLECTIBLES — Column #1556

National Politics and its Impact on the Antiques and Collectibles Business

In the 21st century, outside forces impact the antiques and collectibles business. While also true in the 20th century, the impact of outside forces was less, especially in the early and middle part of the century. In this earlier period, the antiques and collectibles business was insular. It controlled its destiny. It set the rules.

The antiques and collectibles business expanded exponentially in the 1980s, thanks to increased media attention, the solidification of the antiques mall movement, the September 1985 eBay arrival, and globalization. By 2000, the antiques and collectibles business was no longer immune from the impact of rapid changes in decorating tastes, world financial markets, a decline of ethical business dealings, especially the passing of reproductions, copycats, and fakes as period pieces, and the shift in spending direction of discretionary income.

The past 18 months demonstrated how the political clime impacts the antiques and collectibles business. A slow road to recovery and growing confidence in the value associated with owning antiques and collectibles came to a screeching halt. Like the media, pollsters, and pundits who misinterpreted the mood of the general public leading up to the recent presidential election, I failed to pay attention to signs that things were “not quite right” in the antiques and collectibles business. After years of gradual recovery, I preferred optimism over reality. I also failed to recognize how the divisions within the American public in response to the positions of the two presidential candidates held valuable insights and lessons for understanding current and future trends in the antiques and collectibles business.

A quiet, subtle malaise has held sway in the antiques and collectibles business for the past 18 months. Sales slowed. The slowdown was so gradual that it went unnoticed until six months ago. Antiques and collectibles flea market, mall, shop, and show dealers found it harder to cover overhead and the cost of purchasing new merchandise. If there was a profit, it was less than a year or two ago. Renewal rates slowed. Crowds at flea markets, malls, and shows disappeared earlier than normal.

As the level of uncertainty and animosity built during the 2016 presidential election process, individuals became concerned economically. Fearful about their future economic prospects, many chose not to spend. In the months leading up to the election, housing starts and automobile sales were down. There were mild fluctuations within the stock market. Any economic “wait and see” period is bad for the antiques and collectibles business.

America has voted. It will take weeks, perhaps months for the divisiveness to end. For some, it will never end. The good news is that the election is over. A decision has been made. Once the recriminations and demonstrations settle down, America will move forward. It always does.

The media-predicted financial disaster following a Trump victory did not happen. The stock market rose substantially. The dollar grew stronger against foreign currencies. The mood is optimistic. Americans started spending once again. Pre-Christmas sale numbers are good.

Long-term spending forecasts are optimistic. Even if only a small portion of the new discretionary income flows into the antiques and collectibles business, it will provide a much needed “shot-in-the-arm.”

A renewal of power inherent in the voice of blue collar and white collar whites was a key element in the presidential election. Although many are loath to admit it, the antiques and collectibles business is not diverse. It is over 95 percent white. I am not proud of this. Antiques and collectibles are for everyone. I am not blind to it either. The bulk of the common and mid-level antiques are purchased by members of the blue collar and white collar communities. When this economic demographic is content, the antiques and collectibles business prospers. Many of these individuals are quiet collectors, known only to a few family members and friends.

The 2016 presidential election once again demonstrated the divide between the urban (city) and small town / rural areas. This divide is more than political. It is economic, social, diverse, and cultural. There are major collecting differences between urban and rural collectors. Space is one. Urban collectors do not have the space to house large collections. Suburbanites, small town, and rural collectors do.

The concentration of blue states in New England and the West Coast also reflects regional divides in collecting. Recognizing that what follows is a gross simplification, the divide is between intellectual urban collectors and collectors who are more down to earth and in touch with preserving memorabilia of the common man. Do not be fooled by the exceptions. Exceptions have a bad habit of clouding an underlying reality.

The West Coast and the East Coast north of the Mason-Dixon Line collectors think they know what is good for American collectors. They do not. The heart of American collecting is found in the Midwest, Plains, South, Southwest states, and the rust bucket states. California and New York do not speak for the American secondary antiques and collectibles business as a whole.

Although largely unregulated, there have been a number of recent state government regulations that have not boded well for the antiques and collectibles business. If the “less governmental regulation” movement grows, it should spill over and cause a repeal of some of the more onerous laws. I am not a fan of an unchecked laissez-faire antiques and collectibles marketplace. I prefer regulation that protects consumers against the misinformation and fraud that is rampant in the antiques and collectibles business.

Change is the order of the day following the presidential election. Change has been the order of the day in the antiques and collectibles business since the late 1990s. There is a difference between the demand being made for change within the Washington, D.C., beltline and the change that is occurring in the antiques and collectibles business. The call for political change has a strong backward component, a desire to return to the way things were in the past – a return to the traditionalism of the late 20th century. Change within the antiques and collectibles business is forward looking. There will be no return to the way things were done in the past. The Millennials are forging a new collecting pathway. Their desire for independence precludes any influence from older generations.

Traditionalist collectors are enjoying their last hurrah. The entertainment and tech star power that has propped up many of the traditional collecting category markets is ending. Traditional antiques and collectibles are no longer viewed as investments but rather as commodities that can be bought and sold on the slightest market whim. The high-end market is fickle. Portions will collapse. It is inevitable.

Trump has discovered that “America First’ is a fine slogan but contradictory to reality. We live in a global world and digital age. It is the future. Collecting is comprised of local, state, regional, national, and global elements. No one element exists in isolation. The continual movement of individuals and families precludes this.

The recent political election had a strong black and white, good versus evil aspect. There were few shades of gray. The secondary presidential candidates proofed this. Those who lived through the Cold War of the late 1940s and 1950s, mostly septuagenarians and octogenarians, recognize the stupidity of such an approach. The divide between antiques and collectibles was breached by the beginning of the 20th century. The antiques and collectibles marketplace is a whole.

The personalities and decisions of American politics over the next four years will continue to impact the antiques and collectibles business. I have grave reservations about this. If I had my druthers, I would prefer not to have to focus on this topic again. Reality suggests otherwise.

Harry L. Rinker welcomes questions from readers about collectibles, those mass-produced items from the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Selected letters will be answered in this column. Harry cannot provide personal answers. Photos and other material submitted cannot be returned. Send your questions to: Rinker on Collectibles, 5955 Mill Point Court SE, Kentwood, MI 49512. You also can e-mail your questions to harrylrinker@aol.com. Only e-mails containing a full name and mailing address will be considered.

You can listen and participate in WHATCHA GOT?, Harry’s antiques and collectibles radio call-in show, on Sunday mornings between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time. If you cannot find it on a station in your area, WHATCHA GOT? streams live on the Internet at www.gcnlive.com.

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