RINKER ON COLLECTIBLES — Column #1532

Copyright © Harry Rinker, LLC 2016

The Perfect Storm: Why the Secondary Doll Market Is In the Doldrums

Collecting categories decline, a difficult concept for many in the antiques and collectibles trade to accept.  The list is long – ceramics (Chinese Fitzhugh and Rose Medallion patterns; 19th Century English lusterware, Gaudy Dutch, and Spatterware; Blue Ridge, Fiesta, and Stangl); collectibles (personality memorabilia from the 1920s through the early 1960s); glass (cut, depression era, pattern glass; Cambridge, Imperial, Heisey, and even Fenton glass); furniture (generic oak and 1920s-1960s Colonial Revival); textiles (coverlets, some needlework types, and quilts); and general categories such as dolls and toy trains. Secondary market decline usually occurs gradually.  Auctioneers, collectors, dealers, and others fail to recognize it until it is a fait accompli.  The secondary doll collecting market collapse happened much more quickly and those involved were well aware of what was happening.

For the past several years, I have been tracking a downward trend in the secondary market value for dolls.  The downturn is unusual in that prices at all levels, even the upper echelon, fell at an alarming rate.

Six months ago, I called Dawn Herlocher, a close friend and author of “200 Years of Dolls: Identification and Price Guide, 3rd Edition” published by KP (Krause Publications).  Dawn indicated she preferred not to talk with me.  She was in the process of preparing her inventory of dolls, doll parts, and costumes to send to auction.  Dawn, a major doll dealer from the 1970s through the late 2000s, had not unpacked her inventory since returning from a doll show more than five years ago.  Dawn was concerned if she shared her insights and I wrote about them, it would impact what people would pay for her dolls at auction.  “I’ll talk to you once my things are sold,” she offered.  I accepted.

Six months passed.  Dawn’s collection has crossed the auction block.  She sold everything with the exception of her grandmother’s doll and her husband’s mother’s doll.  The auctioneer arrived with a 40-foot van to pick up the collection.  After filling the van’s body and much of the front seat area, there still were leftover boxes.

I have known Dawn for over 30 years.  She was an advisor to the Warman price guide titles that I edited that included doll collecting categories.  Dawn was and remains my principal source for insights into the current status and short and intermediate trending of the secondary antique and collectibles doll market.  Her information is solid and reliable.

Dawn’s position is that the financial collapse of the secondary doll market occurred suddenly and with such finality that nothing could be done to stop it.  A series of circumstances converged to create The Perfect Storm.  The Storm swept across the doll secondary market impacting every auctioneer, collector, and dealer.  The Storm was so violent is almost swept the landscape clean.

When I asked Dawn when The Perfect Storm occurred, she answered without hesitation—2009.  The date coincides with the 2008-2009 Great Recession, an economic event that profoundly impacted the secondary antiques and collectibles marketplace.  Although Dawn admitted that the Great Recession was a factor, she cited the primary reason as the death of W. Richard Wright, Jr. on March 1, 2009.  Wright kept doll collecting front and center in the media, not just the doll media but the national and international media as well.  Every announcement from Wright created a sense of excitement – from a new find to the payment of a record price.  His vivaciousness created an atmosphere that every day was the greatest day possible and included boundless opportunity.

[Author’s Aside:  The White Knight, the champion of a specialized collecting category and national/international spokesperson, plays a major role in the antiques and collectibles trade.  When the White Knight dies and is not replaced, the consequences for that collecting category can be disastrous.  Ideally, every collecting category has multiple White Knights.  Reality is different.  Today, most collecting categories have no White Knights.]

Dawn identified the 2008-2009 period as a key turning point in the role the Internet played in doll collecting.  From its beginning in September 1995, eBay provided an opportunity for doll collectors to purchase scarce dolls at bargain prices.  eBay expanded the marketplace and offered a new sales venue.  By 2008-2009, eBay was flooded with dolls, many of which failed to find buyers.  The survival rate was far higher than even the most insightful doll collector or dealer had imagined.

Many “first time” doll collectors turned to the internet.  They placed blind trust in the sellers, a major mistake.  When dolls and doll accessories arrived with condition and other problems, these potential long-term buyers became demoralized, many turning away from doll collecting.

The 2008-2009 Great Recession ended investment speculation in dolls in all market segments – from the top end to lower end contemporary and collector edition dolls, especially Barbie.  Those who entered the doll market for the short-term lost 50 percent or more when selling their inventory.  The more prices decline, the harder it is to stop or stabilize the  trend.  Dawn noted in a recent email that a closed mouth Belton doll that at the peak of the doll market high commanded $2,500.00 at auction recently sold for $65.00.

The doll market suffered a major blow when the $500.00 to $1,500.00 buyer deserted the field.  These buyers were the foundation that supported the middle of the doll market.  Again, although the 2008-2009 Great Recession was a factor, it was not the primary reason.  These collectors simply lost interest in dolls.  They shifted their collecting focus to more vibrant collecting segments.  Dawn also noted the increased competition for discretionary income, especially among young adults, many of whom prefer to spend their money on a vacation than collect dolls.

During the 20th-century, doll collecting was an independent market within the antiques and collectibles community.  The United Federation of Doll Clubs saw no need to interact with outside collectors.  It had its own show circuit and support literature.  The doll temple on the hill appeared to be impenetrable.

Membership decline in the doll collecting community was evident to everyone by 2009.  Collectors were aging.  Antique dolls were the providence of the gray-hairs, older collectors who felt their approach and only their approach was the way dolls should be collected.  Membership in the United Federation of Doll Clubs and its chapters fell, often significantly.  Younger collectors were welcomed reluctantly and faced discrimination if they collected in the post-1945 period.  Barbie was verboten. 

By 2009, the doll show circuit had contracted.  Many shows were gone.  Surviving shows reduced their frequency.  F+W canceled the March 2010 Atlantique City, a major sales venue for doll dealers.  At its demise, it was a shadow of the great Norman Schaut Atlantique City shows.

Specialized publishers of doll books and periodicals were forced to face a grim reality as the 21st century dawned.  Readership no longer was sufficient to support many of them.  Newsstands that once featured more than a dozen doll titles now had one or none.  “Doll Reader” merged into “Dolls.”  Reviews of current content indicates the quality of articles and other information continues to worsen.

It has been five years since the publication of a major price guide to dolls.  When Hobby House published the last edition (sixteenth) of Jan Foulke’s “Blue Book of Doll Values” in 2003, the title was 30 years old.  In an effort to keep the title alive, Jan Foulke worked with Synoptic Print Management to publish two editions of “Jan Foulke’s Guide to Dolls,” the last in 2011.  Krause Publication (KP) published the third edition of Herlocker’s “200 Years of Dolls: Identification & Price Guide” in 2009.  The last edition of the “Official Price Guide to Dolls” from House of Collectibles was published in 2005.  With the demise of Collector Books, Linda Edwards issued one more edition of her “Doll Values” in 2012.  It is highly unlikely there will ever be another edition of any of these titles.  Collectors are not willing to buy a new edition or title that indicates the value of their treasures has declined.  Online price guides, such as dollprice.com and collectdolls.about.com are poor imitations of the former print guides.

Like many modern auction houses, Theriault’s, a house I never recommend to clients, is a cherry picker operation.  It no longer auctions full collections.  James Julia has withdrawn from doll and toy auctions, leaving the field to Morphy Auctions.  Harris McMasters Doll Auction still sells collections but often lots material to achieve a minimum bid per lot.

Dawn openly revealed the return on her inventory will be between 35 and 40 percent of her purchase price and is happy to get that.   Her more than 45 years of involvement with dolls has ended.  Her passion, enthusiasm, and quest for knowledge have been extinguished.

Harry L. Rinker welcomes questions from readers about collectibles, those mass-produced items from the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.  Selected letters will be answered in this column.  Harry cannot provide personal answers.  Photos and other material submitted cannot be returned.  Send your questions to: Rinker on Collectibles, 5955 Mill Point Court SE, Kentwood, MI  49512.  You also can e-mail your questions to harrylrinker@aol.com. Only e-mails containing a full name and mailing address will be considered.

You can listen and participate in WHATCHA GOT?, Harry’s antiques and collectibles radio call-in show, on Sunday mornings between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time.  If you cannot find it on a station in your area, WHATCHA GOT? streams live on the Internet at www.gcnlive.com.