RINKER ON COLLECTIBLES — Column #1474

Copyright © Harry Rinker, LLC 2015

Do Collecting Categories Have Lifetimes?

This column challenges the assumption that once something is collected, it will be collected forever.  With the advent of the worldwide web, collecting categories increased exponentially, thus allowing a more detailed analysis of the secondary antiques and collectibles market.  One result of this analysis is a growing recognition that specialized collecting subcategories have a predictable lifetime.

Auctioneers, collectors, dealers, and other in the trade in the mid-20th century were convinced that collecting categories would last forever.  These individuals thought in broad terms—ceramics, collectibles (not recognized as a general collecting category until the 1980s), glass, furniture, paintings, metals, toys, and more.  General categories had collecting subcategories, for example, American historical view china in ceramics and cut glass in glass.  The number of subcategories was small, often less than 25 per general category.

A cyclical market theory prevailed.  When a collecting subcategory cooled, a period of waiting was required before the collecting subcategory would become “hot” again.  The rise, decline, and rise of several collecting subcategories during the 20th century supported this belief.  A faith that new collectors would replace older collectors and prices would increase, albeit not necessarily linearly, provided the foundation for this secondary market viewpoint.

The arrival of the secondary collectibles market in the 1970s and 1980s challenged this assumption.  Although technically a part of the antiques market, the collectibles market developed a life and integrity of its own.  The number of collecting subcategories tripled, as collectors of everything from aviation memorabilia to snow globes came out of the closet.  Market pundits mistakenly thought these new collecting subcategories would function just like the traditional collecting subcategories.  While true initially, this was not the case by the advent of the 21st century.  The arrival of market manipulators and speculators along with more recent objects whose collectability had not stood the test of multi-generational collecting are two reasons why the standard market pattern malfunctioned.

September 4, 1995, the day that lives in infamy for those associated with the antiques and collectibles trade, marked the arrival of eBay.  It is impossible to overrate eBay’s impact on the secondary antiques and collectibles marketplace.  eBay redefined scarcity, one of the three value pillars along with condition and desirability, that provides the value basis for  antiques and collectibles.  eBay flooded the market with merchandise.  Although the dam broke in 1995, it took almost a decade to complete the flooding process.

eBay raised two key questions not previously asked – (1) what is the value of the next object offered for sale when everyone who wants to own an example of that object has one and (2) exactly how many collecting categories are there?  In respect to the latter, when eBay abandoned its Collectibles Division shortly after the turn of the 21st century, eBay’s market research revealed the number of collecting subcategories exceeded 30,000.

eBay attracted large numbers of unknowledgeable sellers and sellers whose moral scruples and ethics left much to be desired.  Misidentification, misrepresentation of condition and completeness, and misinformation including provenance, historical background, and period dating was and remains prevalent.  eBay pushed caveat emptor (let the buyer beware) to the extreme.

As time passed eBay, once considered the 800-pound gorilla, turned out to be less a threat to the traditional antiques and collectibles market than first anticipated.  Fortunately, the gorilla chose other paths to trample.  While the secondary antiques and collectibles marketplace adapted and partially recovered, the damage eBay left behind never will be fully repaired.

In the 1990s, I developed the concept of one-generation collectibles based on the question: What is going to happen to a collectible collecting category when the generation who grew up with the objects in that collecting category fades away.  Although ridiculed when first proposed, the concept has been market tested and proven valid. Dozens of collecting subcategories focused on 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s objects have disappeared or are close to disappearing.

Even the theory that there always will be collectors for high-end material regardless of the the state of the middle and low-end items in a collecting subcategory is subject to question.  The 1950s ten-piece Hopalong Cassidy bedroom suite for which I paid $4,500.00 in the 1990s failed to realize $500.00 when sold in 2015 at auction.

[Author’s Aside:  There are times when I look in the mirror and chastise myself for not following my own advice.  The difficulty is that I never planned to sell my things.  I expected to die owning them.  As I grow older and realize my heirs and most young adults have no interest in my things, I have been forced to rethink my position.  The longer I wait to sell my antique and collectible treasures, the less money I will receive.  Today, as I stare in the mirror, I think – sell, you damn fool / cut your losses.  The collecting voice in my head says: “Do not listen.  It’s the devil talking.”]

Given the applicability of one-generation collectibles collecting subcategories, the concept of two- or three-generation antiques and collectibles categories is worth considering.  A historical perspective is required to adopt this concept.  The American secondary antiques and collectibles marketplace is relatively young.  It began in the late 19th century, meaning its history is less than 150 years.  The traditional American secondary antiques and collectibles marketplace matured in the 1930s.  The immediate decades that followed provided a false sense of historical reality.  The last two decades have challenged every assumption associated with the traditional market.  The two- and three-generation theory applies to the 2015 antiques and collectibles market.  It is only one analytical tool in a long-term process of understanding the market.  Change is not in the wind.  Change is the wind.

In the 1970s through the early 1980s, several reasons can be identified to explain the survival of antiques and collectibles collecting subcategories into a second and third generation of collectors.  The first reflects the “hand-me-down” generations who grew up during the Depression, World War II, and the immediate post-war period.  They played with the same toys that their parents and grandparents used.  Second, as their grandparents and parents died, the second and third generations inherited their sets of dinnerware, glassware, tabletop items, and furniture.  Since their experience was based upon use, they followed suit.  These second and third generations eagerly completed and expanded existing sets.  Third, the post-war economic boom and the acceptability of the subcategories in the general collectibles market encouraged collecting.  Collecting was affordable, acceptable, and fun.  Collecting began as a hobby but quickly evolved into an easy to track secondary antiques and collectibles market.  Memories and nostalgia forged the three reasons above into a common chain.

The past no longer holds the same level of importance with modern generations as it did for the Baby Boomers.  The 21st century emphasis is new and functional.   Its discretionary income focus is on leisure rather than memory.  Many traditional, 20th century collecting general categories and subcategories are under attack.  The list is long.  Pattern glass, cut glass, Fiesta, cookie jars, Buddy L toys, and 1920s and 1930s Colonial Revival furniture are a few examples.  These are among the numerous categories that are failing to attract younger collectors to replace older collectors who have retired from the field or passed away.  Attend a Matchbox or stamp collecting convention and count the number of gray-haired participants.

The above concerns are irrelevant to those who hold an immediate and short-term view of the secondary antiques and collectibles market.  They see only what is in front of their eyes.  They have no cares or concerns about the long-term future of collecting.

Time is perspective.  It is something that has to be experienced, carefully considered, and analyzed.  While change is quick, its impact often takes decades to reveal itself.  The disappearance of collecting subcategories is not catastrophic.  It is a slow gradual fade, a fade the initial generation of collectors may not experience in their lifetime.

In conclusion, most collecting subcategories appear to have limited lifetimes, some of which are predictable.  Whether that lifetime is 75, 150, or 300 years is the determinant.

Harry L. Rinker welcomes questions from readers about collectibles, those mass-produced items from the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.  Selected letters will be answered in this column.  Harry cannot provide personal answers.  Photos and other material submitted cannot be returned.  Send your questions to: Rinker on Collectibles, 5955 Mill Point Court SE, Kentwood, MI  49512.  You also can e-mail your questions to harrylrinker@aol.com. Only e-mails containing a full name and mailing address will be considered.

You can listen and participate in WHATCHA GOT?, Harry’s antiques and collectibles radio call-in show, on Sunday mornings between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time.  If you cannot find it on a station in your area, WHATCHA GOT? streams live on the Internet at www.gcnlive.com.